董镇元8月12日:避险大阳需延续,金银短空后低多

上周黄金市场早盘开盘在1439.2的位置后行情先回落给出1436的位置后行情就开始拉升,到周三行情最高触及到了1510.6的位置后行情区间波动,周线最终收线在了1496.7的位置后,周线以一根上影线很长的大阳线收线,而这样的形态收尾后,本周行情回踩依旧要多。但日线上由于上周三冲高,随后区间整理行程高位十字星加中阴线的调整信号,所以今日拉高后先高空,给出调整点位后在延续周线的反弹过程低多操作,点位上,下方1274-1276的多和1342的多止损统一跟进在1430持有,1430的多止损跟进在1450持有,今日1504空保守1506空止损1510,下方目标看1489-1490支撑点,跌破的话行情将调整到1482附近离场反手直接多,止损1476,目标不放,不损波段持有。

基本面,上周的基本面依旧围绕着美国对中国准备征收3000亿商品美元的关税,以及美国总统一再指出的美联储必须要更大更多次的降息也就是加大QE政策以刺激关税,英国方面新任首相上任后英国很有可能会硬脱欧是后市另一大关键,而在这样的大背景下人民币破7全球股市普跌等避险消息不断刺激国际大宗商品价格的拉升,而金银市成为国内资金的避风港更是备受瞩目,而在这样的大背景下短期基本面依旧是避险,本周的基本面关注周二20:30的美国季调后CPI月率,周三关注20:30的美国进口物价指数和22:30的美国EIA原油库存,周四是下周的关键一天,关注美盘20:30的美国当周初请失业金人数和同时公布的美国7月零售销售以及费城和纽约联储的制造业指数,随后22:00关注美国商业库存和房产指数。周五关注20:30的美国营建许可和新屋开工,22:00关注密歇根大学消费者信心指数即可。

操作上,黄金:下方1274-1276的多和1342的多止损统一跟进在1430持有,1430的多止损跟进在1450持有,今日1504空保守1506空止损1510,下方目标看1489-1490支撑点,跌破的话行情将调整到1482附近离场反手直接多,止损1476,目标不放,不损波段持有

美黄金12:今日1514-1516空止损1521,下方目标看1505和1501,破位的话看1490-1487附近离场,准备反手多。


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